Weaknesses of this approach to sensitivity analysis_2020年ACCA考試FM知識點
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【內容導航】
Weaknesses of this approach to sensitivity analysis敏感性分析的缺點
【知識點】
Weaknesses of this approach to sensitivity analysis敏感性分析的缺點
Weaknesses of this approach to sensitivity analysis敏感性分析的缺點
(a) The method requires that changes in each key variable are isolated, assuming that all other values in the estimated cash flows are unchanged. However, management may be more interested in the combination of the effects of changes in two or more key variables. Looking at factors in isolation is unrealistic since they are often interdependent
(b) Sensitivity analysis is analysis when there is uncertainty. It does not examine the probability that any particular variation in costs or revenues might occur.
(c) Critical factors may be those over which managers have no control.
(d) In itself it does not provide a decision rule. Parameters defining acceptability of an investment project, given the uncertainty, must be laid down by managers.
The certainty-equivalent approach
Another method is the certainty-equivalent approach. By this method, the expected cash flows of the project are converted to riskless equivalent amounts. The greater the risk of an expected cash flow, the smaller the certainty-equivalent value (for receipts) or the larger the certainty-equivalent value (for payments).
As the cash flows are reduced to supposedly certain amounts, they should be discounted at a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate is effectively the level of return that can be obtained from undertaking no risk.
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注：以上內容來自Echo老師基礎班第19講
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